Row 97989

Row ID: 97989 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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i don't think anyone is unaware of the possibility of the market going down. that 10.5% pre inflation average is 3/4 green years in the mid teens, 1/4 red years in the high single digits. on average. throw in the occasional 20-50% drawdown every so often. no free lunch.

the part you miss is unless you are just lump summing one single data point the chance of being in the red in a 5-10-15 year timespan is pretty low. if anything you 'want' the market to go down early on in your investing timespan so long as it does not impact wages or employment.

>Is no one else concerned that we are at a period where everything is overinflated and some bubbles are going to start popping?

you could make this argument at pretty much any point in time. we were in a bubble, then spy ran from 360 to 530 in a very short period of time. people dont know shit. are valuations high? sure. if you are presently retiring it would be a very good idea to have a decent amount in cash/bonds, or a flexible withdrawal rate.

FieldValue
text i don't think anyone is unaware of the possibility of the market going down. that 10.5% pre inflation average is 3/4 green years in the mid teens, 1/4 red years in the high single digits. on average. throw in the occasional 20-50% drawdown every so often. no free lunch. the part you miss is unless you are just lump summing one single data point the chance of being in the red in a 5-10-15 year timespan is pretty low. if anything you 'want' the market to go down early on in your investing time…
label r/investing
dataType comment
communityName r/investing
datetime 2024-05-25
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Raw Record

{
  "text": "i don't think anyone is unaware of the possibility of the market going down. that 10.5% pre inflation average is 3/4 green years in the mid teens, 1/4 red years in the high single digits. on average. throw in the occasional 20-50% drawdown every so often. no free lunch.\n\n  \nthe part you miss is unless you are just lump summing one single data point the chance of being in the red in a 5-10-15 year timespan is pretty low. if anything you 'want' the market to go down early on in your investing timespan so long as it does not impact wages or employment.\n\n  \n>Is no one else concerned that we are at a period where everything is overinflated and some bubbles are going to start popping?\n\n  \nyou could make this argument at pretty much any point in time. we were in a bubble, then spy ran from 360 to 530 in a very short period of time. people dont know shit. are valuations high? sure. if you are presently retiring it would be a very good idea to have a decent amount in cash/bonds, or a flexible withdrawal rate.",
  "label": "r/investing",
  "dataType": "comment",
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  "datetime": "2024-05-25",
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