Row 86044

Row ID: 86044 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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This page contains data entry 86044 from the Axioma AXP content repository. The structured data below represents the complete record for this entry.

Extreme expectations, I have used two large drops in nvidia before. It took one missed quarter after the Bitcoin crash and large oversupply of gpus due to miners selling on eBay to send it -70% in weeks in 2018. This is not a threat anymore due to the fact it is a datacenter company nowadays and gaming segment is actually constantly declining.

Anyways, Bought that fall and rode it into 2020 and got out before the last top which was pretty much based on supply chain issues that time around with TSMC. That crash was saved by the AI hype. Literally. But next crash has nothing new to hype. So the next one when the demand of datacenters have peaked and nvidia fundamentally plateau in demand vs supply constraints that’s the one I am pondering. People can’t seriously believe that these past quarters constitutes forward growth? It’s a demand shock initially around the datacenters to finally make nvidia a big corp. But what people expect now is revenues in the trillions. Not even Walmart is close after peaking at 600B revenues.

The thing also is that TSMC is bipolar about their ability to supply chips and the supply chains were so weak in the pandemic, And TSMC is under constant threat of a Chinese invasion.

People always mistake past events for future prophecy.

The demand is real but the growth is never forever!

Right now the intrinsic value is about 750B and I totally agree with that. That’s exactly what I few years ago expected it to become at this point when it was worth around 500B.

Anyways the valuation is outlandish and fanboys with zero insight into nvidia has taken a great company to an extreme valuation with considerable threats to said valuation. Every single huge drop in nvidia has come on very small hurdles so it will be very interesting to see what pops it this time.

My own thesis is that nvidia will mature into more like the aeronautics sector is with huge backlogs. But they won’t necessarily be able to supply the demand from TSMC and has to have a huge backup against that very real Chinese threat

FieldValue
text Extreme expectations, I have used two large drops in nvidia before. It took one missed quarter after the Bitcoin crash and large oversupply of gpus due to miners selling on eBay to send it -70% in weeks in 2018. This is not a threat anymore due to the fact it is a datacenter company nowadays and gaming segment is actually constantly declining. Anyways, Bought that fall and rode it into 2020 and got out before the last top which was pretty much based on supply chain issues that time around with…
label r/wallstreetbets
dataType comment
communityName r/wallstreetbets
datetime 2024-05-24
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Raw Record

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  "text": "Extreme expectations, I have used two large drops in nvidia before. It took one missed quarter after the Bitcoin crash and large oversupply of gpus due to miners selling on eBay to send it -70% in weeks in 2018. This is not a threat anymore due to the fact it is a datacenter company nowadays and gaming segment is actually constantly declining. \n\nAnyways, Bought that fall and rode it into 2020 and got out before the last top which was pretty much based on supply chain issues that time around with TSMC. That crash was saved by the AI hype. Literally. But next crash has nothing new to hype. So the next one when the demand of datacenters have peaked and nvidia fundamentally plateau in demand vs supply constraints that’s the one I am pondering. People can’t seriously believe that these past quarters constitutes forward growth? It’s a demand shock initially around the datacenters to finally make nvidia a big corp. But what people expect now is revenues in the trillions. Not even Walmart is close after peaking at 600B revenues. \n\nThe thing also is that TSMC is bipolar about their ability to supply chips and the supply chains were so weak in the pandemic, And TSMC is under constant threat of a Chinese invasion. \n\nPeople always mistake past events for future prophecy. \n\nThe demand is real but the growth is never forever!\n\nRight now the intrinsic value is about 750B and I totally agree with that. That’s exactly what I few years ago expected it to become at this point when it was worth around 500B.\n\nAnyways the valuation is outlandish and fanboys with zero insight into nvidia has taken a great company to an extreme valuation with considerable threats to said valuation. Every single huge drop in nvidia has come on very small hurdles so it will be very interesting to see what pops it this time.\n\nMy own thesis is that nvidia will mature into more like the aeronautics sector is with huge backlogs. But they won’t necessarily be able to supply the demand from TSMC and has to have a huge backup against that very real Chinese threat",
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