Row 8170

Row ID: 8170 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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This page contains data entry 8170 from the Axioma AXP content repository. The structured data below represents the complete record for this entry.

Hey guys!

I've been tinkering with working in Solana lately and I've found it super fun to work with.

I think prediction markets are super interesting, but I found that resolving prediction markets can sometimes be convoluted and prone to error because a centralized entity might be able to have control over the resolution.

An example of this is "Will the weather hit a high of 65F in San Francisco on May 19th? This market resolves to "yes" if [weather.com](http://weather.com) shows at least a high of 65F in San Francisco on May 19th."

This works if the entity is completely trusted, but if a [weather.com](http://weather.com) associate for example sees the prediction market and buys into it, they could potentially maliciously alter the weather data on the site to manipulate the market.

So I was thinking, what if capital was the resolver rather than a centralized entity? So for example, you could "contribute" to side A or side B, and at the resolution time, the side with the most capital wins and reaps the capital of the other side.

This way, any manipulation must be through capital infusion into the pool, and the any capital manipulation would make the capital exposed to significant loss too (if there is manipulation on the other side of the pool for example), which means that the side-prediction itself should be fair.

Obviously, you couldn't ask truthy questions like "Will the weather hit a high of 65F", but you could instead post a picture of a dog and cat and see which one wins.

I'm thinking of making a fun project like this - are there any protocols out there like this right now?

Thanks!

FieldValue
text Hey guys! I've been tinkering with working in Solana lately and I've found it super fun to work with. I think prediction markets are super interesting, but I found that resolving prediction markets can sometimes be convoluted and prone to error because a centralized entity might be able to have control over the resolution. An example of this is "Will the weather hit a high of 65F in San Francisco on May 19th? This market resolves to "yes" if [weather.com](http://weather.com) shows at least a …
label r/solana
dataType post
communityName r/solana
datetime 2024-05-18
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Raw Record

{
  "text": "Hey guys!\n\nI've been tinkering with working in Solana lately and I've found it super fun to work with.\n\nI think prediction markets are super interesting, but I found that resolving prediction markets can sometimes be convoluted and prone to error because a centralized entity might be able to have control over the resolution.\n\nAn example of this is \"Will the weather hit a high of 65F in San Francisco on May 19th? This market resolves to \"yes\" if [weather.com](http://weather.com) shows at least a high of 65F in San Francisco on May 19th.\"\n\nThis works if the entity is completely trusted, but if a [weather.com](http://weather.com) associate for example sees the prediction market and buys into it, they could potentially maliciously alter the weather data on the site to manipulate the market.\n\nSo I was thinking, what if capital was the resolver rather than a centralized entity? So for example, you could \"contribute\" to side A or side B, and at the resolution time, the side with the most capital wins and reaps the capital of the other side.\n\nThis way, any manipulation must be through capital infusion into the pool, and the any capital manipulation would make the capital exposed to significant loss too (if there is manipulation on the other side of the pool for example), which means that the side-prediction itself should be fair.\n\nObviously, you couldn't ask truthy questions like \"Will the weather hit a high of 65F\", but you could instead post a picture of a dog and cat and see which one wins.\n\nI'm thinking of making a fun project like this - are there any protocols out there like this right now?\n\nThanks!",
  "label": "r/solana",
  "dataType": "post",
  "communityName": "r/solana",
  "datetime": "2024-05-18",
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  "url_encoded": "Z0FBQUFBQm5Lak9IRExVZ3lieDRRYnlaV01IOEg3ZTlhd0lyZ2dTbnNBbmYwTFUxWm9wOVhiZExiMEJBSG9CYkdaZ0pYYlBqQ09kUFBacml1UWxkZlpkR0otck5nS21FUDdob1FDODByM3NPWkswUHZ4MU1xLWtjenFDX1I3ajJmeHNMZ2phTWdleDRRXzVRRVhCTU1va3dmNDZKWHM3ZHJBUnoyV1ZmUW5BcjYzTkdtTzFnek1fdWNoZEw5SUEySTIzUXZVSnczWEx4"
}
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