Row 77017

Row ID: 77017 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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Economies with 20% unemployment struggle to remain coherent and functional. The years of the US Great Depression were around 20-25%. The US economy recovered thanks to extreme intervention by the government. Turkey's unemployment is a mere 10.4% and it's nearly a basket case. I'd also point to the downfall of the Greek economy as an example of what happens when things go poorly, and note again that it only recovered thanks to extraordinary intervention. There is historical precedent for an economy reaching more than 25% unemployment, the weimar republic just before WWI.

Spain hit 27% unemployment during the financial crisis. It recovered again, thanks to extreme government intervention. White collar work makes up roughly 60% of your average Western economy.

We can't really see AI at work, it's not like it's a 400 meter bridge being built over a river. The rate of progress with AI is exponential. Nearly everyone who criticizes it, including AI professionals who should know better, criticize its future performance by how it's performed in the past.

The many zealous announcements and predictions that people have made in previous decades of what they expected of the future often proved to be way off the mark or even absurd have tempered our expectations more generally but also introduced a strong bias that very few people allow for.

Remember that these people will either be permanently unemployed or do their best to take up a new profession - few cities need an extra 40,000 plumbers.

I haven't worked through scenarios where governments take on special projects to employ significant percentages of their populations, but I don't believe there are any examples where they've been viable to continue long term.

I'm equally confident that no more than a few people are reading any of this, so I'll close by pointing to the Chinese economy and how various sectors both of industry and society are faring currently and the factors that have lead to the current state of the Chinese economy.

I sincerely hope that I'm wrong. The core point that I'd like people to take away if nothing else, is that we should be preparing for poor outcomes and hoping for the best. As it stands now, just about everyone is more than happy to assume that the best are also by far the most likely, with nothing to support those hopes, other than those same hopes.

FieldValue
text Economies with 20% unemployment struggle to remain coherent and functional. The years of the US Great Depression were around 20-25%. The US economy recovered thanks to extreme intervention by the government. Turkey's unemployment is a mere 10.4% and it's nearly a basket case. I'd also point to the downfall of the Greek economy as an example of what happens when things go poorly, and note again that it only recovered thanks to extraordinary intervention. There is historical precedent for an e…
label r/news
dataType comment
communityName r/news
datetime 2024-05-24
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Raw Record

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  "text": "Economies with 20% unemployment struggle to remain coherent and functional. The years of the US Great Depression were around 20-25%. The US economy recovered thanks to extreme intervention by the government.  \nTurkey's unemployment is a mere 10.4% and it's nearly a basket case. I'd also point to the downfall of the Greek economy as an example of what happens when things go poorly, and note again that it only recovered thanks to extraordinary intervention.  \nThere is historical precedent for an economy reaching more than 25% unemployment, the weimar republic just before WWI.\n\nSpain hit 27% unemployment during the financial crisis. It recovered again, thanks to extreme government intervention.  \nWhite collar work makes up roughly 60% of your average Western economy.\n\nWe can't really see AI at work, it's not like it's a 400 meter bridge being built over a river. The rate of progress with AI is exponential. Nearly everyone who criticizes it, including AI professionals who should know better, criticize its future performance by how it's performed in the past.\n\nThe many zealous announcements and predictions that people have made in previous decades of what they expected of the future often proved to be way off the mark or even absurd have tempered our expectations more generally but also introduced a strong bias that very few people allow for.\n\nRemember that these people will either be permanently unemployed or do their best to take up a new profession - few cities need an extra 40,000 plumbers.\n\nI haven't worked through scenarios where governments take on special projects to employ significant percentages of their populations, but I don't believe there are any examples where they've been viable to continue long term.\n\nI'm equally confident that no more than a few people are reading any of this, so I'll close by pointing to the Chinese economy and how various sectors both of industry and society are faring currently and the factors that have lead to the current state of the Chinese economy.\n\nI sincerely hope that I'm wrong. The core point that I'd like people to take away if nothing else, is that we should be preparing for poor outcomes and hoping for the best. As it stands now, just about everyone is more than happy to assume that the best are also by far the most likely, with nothing to support those hopes, other than those same hopes.",
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