Row 72505

Row ID: 72505 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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This page contains data entry 72505 from the Axioma AXP content repository. The structured data below represents the complete record for this entry.

I hold a shitload of LAC stock and this isn’t stock advice. Do what you want idiots.

Short seller Bleecker Street put out a report today calling out LAC’s Thacker pass lithium mine as being economically non viable. I think it’s stupid.

https://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/lac

Their point about the capital requirements of DOE loans is a good one, and I do believe LAC will dilute shares more to raise the required capital. So near term stock price is going to drop.

But here’s the thing, lithium as a supply chain in the US is incredibly far behind china, who’s been building roads, harbors, and mines around the world under their Belt and Road initiative for a decade now. It just takes a really long time to get lithium production going, and to refine it at scale. Right now we’re using all chinese lithium and it’s dirt cheap because there’s been a slowdown in EV and battery investment, and also probably because that lithium relies on some slave labor.

Mentioned in the bleecker st letter is Gangfeng Lithium (Chinas largest lithium miner)’s recently cancelled Sonora mine project. Mexico cancelled their permit not because clay mining wouldn’t work (it will), but because Mexico sees the strategic importance of owning their lithium reserves, and not handing them over to china. The us also obviously sees this.

Mining lithium is also energy and cost intensive, and so far the reserves people have gone after have been the easiest ones, brine based reserves in South America primarily. but that’s not where most of the lithium is. It’s mostly in clay, and a lot of that clay is in Thacker pass.

And we need TONS of lithium for any meaningful energy transition to happen. Industrial scale battery projects are happening, not just EVs. And there are absolutely ZERO manufacturers of lithium battery cells in the US.

Policy wise, I think once it’s viable to build batteries with US lithium, it’s going to be made advantageous by the Us government both through tariffs and incentives - see the IRA, there is already a 10% investment tax credit for using American made products in energy projects. Meaning if you want to install an industrial scale battery, the government will GIVE YOU 10% of your PROJECT COSTS (not just the battery costs) back as a check if it’s majority american made, today. Well like I said, today there are zero US battery manufacturers that can claim that majority US made component. Not even Tesla, because their lithium is refined elsewhere.

LAC is going to be the recipient of the department of energy’s largest ever loan to a lithium mine, so they already have the government support to carry them through to production and let’s be honest, they’ll get what they want from the government to make the lithium flow.

So Bleecker street’s statement that the NPV of this Thacker pass project is based on lithium going up in price is technically true, but it’s not really that important. We’re all going to be powering our houses from solar power stored on US mined, refined, and manufactured lithium in a decade, and most of that lithium is going to come from Thacker pass.

TLDR; LAC is going to drop to a low in the next year or so before becoming incredibly profitable when production ramps up by 2028 because supply chains and Winnie the Pooh

FieldValue
text I hold a shitload of LAC stock and this isn’t stock advice. Do what you want idiots. Short seller Bleecker Street put out a report today calling out LAC’s Thacker pass lithium mine as being economically non viable. I think it’s stupid. https://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/lac Their point about the capital requirements of DOE loans is a good one, and I do believe LAC will dilute shares more to raise the required capital. So near term stock price is going to drop. But here’s the thi…
label r/wallstreetbets
dataType post
communityName r/wallstreetbets
datetime 2024-05-24
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Raw Record

{
  "text": "I hold a shitload of LAC stock and this isn’t stock advice. Do what you want idiots.\n\nShort seller Bleecker Street put out a report today calling out LAC’s Thacker pass lithium mine as being economically non viable. I think it’s stupid.\n\nhttps://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/lac\n\nTheir point about the capital requirements of DOE loans is a good one, and I do believe LAC will dilute shares more to raise the required capital. So near term stock price is going to drop.\n\nBut here’s the thing, lithium as a supply chain in the US is incredibly far behind china, who’s been building roads, harbors, and mines around the world under their Belt and Road initiative for a decade now. It just takes a really long time to get lithium production going, and to refine it at scale. Right now we’re using all chinese lithium and it’s dirt cheap because there’s been a slowdown in EV and battery investment, and also probably because that lithium relies on some slave labor.\n\nMentioned in the bleecker st letter is Gangfeng Lithium (Chinas largest lithium miner)’s recently cancelled Sonora mine project.  Mexico cancelled their permit not because clay mining wouldn’t work (it will), but because Mexico sees the strategic importance of owning their lithium reserves, and not handing them over to china.  The us also obviously sees this.\n\nMining lithium is also energy and cost intensive, and so far the reserves people have gone after have been the easiest ones, brine based reserves in South America primarily. but that’s not where most of the lithium is. It’s mostly in clay, and a lot of that clay is in Thacker pass.  \n\nAnd we need TONS of lithium for any meaningful energy transition to happen. Industrial scale battery projects are happening, not just EVs. And there are absolutely ZERO manufacturers of lithium battery cells in the US.  \n\nPolicy wise, I think once it’s viable to build batteries with US lithium, it’s going to be made advantageous by the Us government both through tariffs and incentives - see the IRA, there is already a 10% investment tax credit for using American made products in energy projects. Meaning if you want to install an industrial scale battery, the government will GIVE YOU 10% of your PROJECT COSTS (not just the battery costs) back as a check if it’s majority american made, today. Well like I said, today there are zero US battery manufacturers that can claim that majority US made component. Not even Tesla, because their lithium is refined elsewhere.\n\nLAC is going to be the recipient of the department of energy’s largest ever loan to a lithium mine, so they already have the government support to carry them through to production and let’s be honest, they’ll get what they want from the government to make the lithium flow.\n\nSo Bleecker street’s statement that the NPV of this Thacker pass project is based on lithium going up in price is technically true, but it’s not really that important. We’re all going to be powering our houses from solar power stored on US mined, refined, and manufactured lithium in a decade, and most of that lithium is going to come from Thacker pass.\n\n\nTLDR; LAC is going to drop to a low in the next year or so before becoming incredibly profitable when production ramps up by 2028 because supply chains and Winnie the Pooh\n",
  "label": "r/wallstreetbets",
  "dataType": "post",
  "communityName": "r/wallstreetbets",
  "datetime": "2024-05-24",
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}
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