Row 48861

Row ID: 48861 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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Did you know smoking is actually increasing globally? % of the global population is going down but population growth and new smokers is outstripping the % decline. It's projected to continue to increase to 2029. Couldn't find projections beyond this so that's all you get.

However I don't think these projections price in a global downturn. We at the top. Rates are high AF. Jerome has trouble with inflation. Borrowing costs are high = lower growth.

What's bad for the US is usually bad for the world. So, if I'm right and things stop doing gooder = less disposable income, more poverty, highly correlated with smoking.

So more smokers, and tobacco is a defensive industry anyway as it's inflation proof.

Compared a few companies in the industry. I think British American tobacco plc (BATS.L) is getting slept on. Consistently very profitable, dividend at 9.52%.

It's like 10% off it's ATL, 56% down from 2017 ATH. Inflation adjusted it's down 51% over 10 years.

I know it's run from the ATL but I'm not bothered about drawdown if the dividend is gonna top it up anyway. I'm loking at 2 year horizon to see a fairly decent, market-beating return.

Position: 169 @ 2465

FieldValue
text Did you know smoking is actually increasing globally? % of the global population is going down but population growth and new smokers is outstripping the % decline. It's projected to continue to increase to 2029. Couldn't find projections beyond this so that's all you get. However I don't think these projections price in a global downturn. We at the top. Rates are high AF. Jerome has trouble with inflation. Borrowing costs are high = lower growth. What's bad for the US is usually bad for the wo…
label r/wallstreetbets
dataType post
communityName r/wallstreetbets
datetime 2024-05-22
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url_encoded Z0FBQUFBQm5Lak9ocTdDOS1TdnFRY3BNQVlYc0ZpXzEzN05lYUtaZDc4ckVHS3Y4WGx2NjJEYnJMQzA3VDh2WlNyYXZZOHFNUlJITTlZOFY2a1I5WWpJTVNoMmFxRFJqZHA1R3l0eFlXRl9PcldPWDNlSzlYcV9FbEliZkU5eVZ0eGdPT0FJek8xMHo1Vms1NlN0SXBOZ2dnTV80YUl3eG9pMFY5ZTlfMUFEelhwN2VhZE9pblVHMkdwVUEzb0J6aDhTdzladVB3VWFVR3V3c0FvSDM4RmsxRHd2c0NodDhKdz09

Raw Record

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  "text": "Did you know smoking is actually increasing globally? % of the global population is going down but population growth and new smokers is outstripping the % decline. It's projected to continue to increase to 2029. Couldn't find projections beyond this so that's all you get.\n\nHowever I don't think these projections price in a global downturn. We at the top. Rates are high AF. Jerome has trouble with inflation. Borrowing costs are high = lower growth.\n\nWhat's bad for the US is usually bad for the world. So, if I'm right and things stop doing gooder = less disposable income, more poverty, highly correlated with smoking.\n\nSo more smokers, and tobacco is a defensive industry anyway as it's inflation proof.\n\nCompared a few companies in the industry. I think British American tobacco plc (BATS.L) is getting slept on. Consistently very profitable, dividend at 9.52%.\n\nIt's like 10% off it's ATL, 56% down from 2017 ATH. Inflation adjusted it's down 51% over 10 years.\n\nI know it's run from the ATL but I'm not bothered about drawdown if the dividend is gonna top it up anyway. I'm loking at 2 year horizon to see a fairly decent, market-beating return.\n\nPosition: 169 @ 2465",
  "label": "r/wallstreetbets",
  "dataType": "post",
  "communityName": "r/wallstreetbets",
  "datetime": "2024-05-22",
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