Row 41270

Row ID: 41270 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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Yeah, I was looking at the letter of the law, the generic case, since the argument started with the question if an invocation of Article 5 would automatically lead to full on war, in any situation. Or even further back, if an actual attack will automatically trigger A5, which will then trigger full scale war. It's improtant to know what Article 5 actually says, and how it can be interpreted, before trying to figure out what'd happen in any hypothetical scenario.

> At some point however,  Putin will do *something* requiring it.  Holding Finnish territory for example.

That would be a case for Article 5, yeah. However, I don't think Putin will actually do it, unless he wins big in Ukraine and the US is distracted, because China does something funny, for example. Winning big in Ukraine is almost impossible at this point - if he had won a quick victory, it would be different, but he didn't. No more "endless" Soviet stockpiles to rely upon; hundreds of thousands of casualties; the economy in shreds; his international prestige and leverage in shambles; no more tangible goodwill in the West towards Russia, no more complacency which he could exploit and which was a big part as for why he assumed he'd get away with it.

Even Putin is not stupid enough to start shit in Finland while he's still bogged down in Ukraine, and I suspect that Russia will be stuck where it is for a long time.

FieldValue
text Yeah, I was looking at the letter of the law, the generic case, since the argument started with the question if an invocation of Article 5 would automatically lead to full on war, in any situation. Or even further back, if an actual attack will automatically trigger A5, which will then trigger full scale war. It's improtant to know what Article 5 actually says, and how it can be interpreted, before trying to figure out what'd happen in any hypothetical scenario. > At some point however,  Putin…
label r/worldnews
dataType comment
communityName r/worldnews
datetime 2024-05-22
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Raw Record

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  "text": "Yeah, I was looking at the letter of the law, the generic case, since the argument started with the question if an invocation of Article 5 would automatically lead to full on war, in any situation. Or even further back, if an actual attack will automatically trigger A5, which will then trigger full scale war. It's improtant to know what Article 5 actually says, and how it can be interpreted, before trying to figure out what'd happen in any hypothetical scenario. \n\n> At some point however,  Putin will do *something* requiring it.  Holding Finnish territory for example.\n\n  \nThat would be a case for Article 5, yeah. However, I don't think Putin will actually do it, unless he wins big in Ukraine and the US is distracted, because China does something funny, for example. Winning big in Ukraine is almost impossible at this point - if he had won a quick victory, it would be different, but he didn't. No more \"endless\" Soviet stockpiles to rely upon; hundreds of thousands of casualties; the economy in shreds; his international prestige and leverage in shambles; no more tangible goodwill in the West towards Russia, no more complacency which he could exploit and which was a big part as for why he assumed he'd get away with it. \n\nEven Putin is not stupid enough to start shit in Finland while he's still bogged down in Ukraine, and I suspect that Russia will be stuck where it is for a long time.",
  "label": "r/worldnews",
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  "datetime": "2024-05-22",
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