Row 3329

Row ID: 3329 | Dataset Entry | Axioma AXP Content Repository

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Devil's advocate: do remember, as recently as a few years ago, he did *not* think that AGI was imminent. Even in 2020, he was saying that artificial general intelligence was "more than ten years away," and probably more than that. He didn't sign up to be that authority; he was of the mind that there was going to be a *LOT* more time than there actually wound up being, and that by the time we would get even reasonably close, there would be ample time for debates about how to proceed. OpenAI screwed that up by exploiting scaling laws and large language models, which was an unexpected path to the world models necessary to form the foundation for at least an early AGI.

Think of the controversies about data scraping copyrighted material. That was also OpenAI. Google and DeepMind weren't pursuing that approach; Hassabis and his team were of the mind that a "magical algorithm for intelligence" would bootstrap us to AGI, but that algorithm was not known and even if we did know it, there'd still be too much work to reasonably accomplish it in the 2020s. Singularitarians hoped that maybe by the early 2030s, it'd be here, but it was most probably not intended to be on DeepMind's game plan for 20 years.

Even as late as 2022, DeepMind could comfortably ignore what OpenAI was doing right up until ChatGPT was released and made it *very* public how far ahead they were. Because before ChatGPT, OpenAI wasn't much different from how we view any other tech startup or something like "McDonald's AI lab". Maybe they have some nifty demonstrations and a novel idea or two, but the *real* leaders are DeepMind and their rivals at Baidu. But then they threw down the gauntlet and said "We are a leap away from AGI."

DeepMind's approach seems to be a much more thought-out and technically skilled one at that, so if they *do* take the lead, I'd still trust them to handle the alignment problem more than any subsidiary of Microsoft, but going back to what you're saying, I don't think they expected that they'd have to lead like this at all this soon. If you want to blame anyone, blame OpenAI and the fact there was no attempt at a top-down regulation of efforts, most likely because now that China's aware to the game, there straight up *cannot* be one. That's the part I relate to *Don't Look Up* more than anything.

FieldValue
text Devil's advocate: do remember, as recently as a few years ago, he did *not* think that AGI was imminent. Even in 2020, he was saying that artificial general intelligence was "more than ten years away," and probably more than that. He didn't sign up to be that authority; he was of the mind that there was going to be a *LOT* more time than there actually wound up being, and that by the time we would get even reasonably close, there would be ample time for debates about how to proceed. OpenAI screw…
label r/deepmind
dataType comment
communityName r/deepmind
datetime 2024-02-28
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Raw Record

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